Targeting corporate houses in polls unlikely to pay electoral dividends

It’s a known fact that corporates always try to be in the good books of all political parties by making donations in one way or the other. Therefore, people won’t take allegations against corporates by political parties seriously. So, it’s better for political parties to refrain from targeting corporates during the elections

Corporate houses and corporate leaders becoming a key poll issue is not anything new. We don’t need to travel far into the past to know this. During the 2019 General Elections that saw the return of Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister of India for the second consecutive term with a higher mandate, Anil DhirubhaiAmbani from the corporate world was one of the key poll issues.

Rahul Gandhi, who was the president of Indian National Congress (INC) then, alleged that Modi took decisions that benefitted Anil Ambani’s Reliance Group. He also found fault with Reliance Defence, a part of that group, bagging an offset contract in the Rafale deal. Rahul Gandhi targeted Anil Ambani in every meeting he addressed during that election.

In an unusual move, Anil Ambani’s group even issued an official statement, refuting every allegation made by the Congress leader. The group reminded him that it had received projects worth Rs. one lakh crore during Congress-led UPA regime. But the group, which was already facing several other issues by that time, did not recover thereafter and Anil Ambani more or less went bankrupt. Of course, Congress also did not win that election. However, it marginally improved its tally in the Lok Sabha from 44 in 2014 to 52.

Interestingly, five years down the line, yet another corporate house has become a key poll issue. Everyone knows which corporate house it is in the 2024 General Election. It’s Adani Group led by GautamAdani.

Rahul Gandhi has termed this Gujarat-based diversified conglomerate as a benami of Modi. The Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries, another big corporate house with roots in Gujarat, becomes a target now and then, but it’s the Adani Group that finds a place consistently in the speeches of Congress leaders.

The Adani Group landed in a major trouble and saw its market capitalisation nosedive by a whopping $100 billion last year after US-based Hindenburg Research came out with the allegations of stock manipulations and fraudulent transactions. The group, however, managed to bounce back. But that episode did not deter Congress from continuing its assault on the diversified group. Will this group withstand and come clean on the allegations levelled by Congress? Time will tell.

But this ‘Congress versus Modi via Adani’ issue took an intriguing turn when Modi himself posed a question whether Congress received loads of black money from Adani and Ambani for keeping silent on them in recent times.

“What could be the reason behind this sudden change? How far will this hypocrisy go? How much black money have they received from Adani, Ambani?” he asked. He made this stunning statement at a public meeting in Karimnagar in Telangana last week. It has come as a big surprise because it is Rahul Gandhi who has consistently been alleging that the Adani Group is the major beneficiary of the Modi government.

Why did Modi make this allegation? He is not an ordinary politician. He was the Chief Minister of Gujarat for nearly 13 years before he became the Prime Minister in 2014. He is now aiming for a third consecutive term as PM. To achieve this rare feat, he is leaving no stone unturned. So, he obviously has a strategy behind such a statement.

Recently, Telangana Chief Minister AnumulaRevanth Reddy alleged that Modi has set the target of 400 Lok Sabha seats for BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) because he wants to implement the hidden agenda of BJP’s parent body RashtriyaSwayamsevakSangh (RSS) to scrap existing reservations for scheduled castes (SCs), Scheduled Tribes (SCs) and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) besides making major changes to the Indian Constitution. Revanth Reddy made these charges to check BJP, which is on the rise in Telangana. But this has turned into a national narrative now, drawing condemnation from RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat, Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah.

Further, Modi has been setting a new agenda for every phase of the ongoing seven-phase General Election. Moreover, with poll percentage falling in all phases held so far, a political narrative is gaining traction that BJP’s tally may come down when compared to the 2019 elections. This kind of narrative will obviously harm BJP’s prospects in the coming phases.

To counter the issue of reservations and low turnout besides setting a new agenda for upcoming polls, Modi seemed to have brought forth the issue of Adani and Ambani at the Karimnagar meeting. However, this may prove to be counterproductive as Modi has never talked against corporates in such a manner. Further, targeting a corporate house never pays political dividends as it was evident during the 2019 elections when Rahul targeted Anil Ambani. It’s a known fact that corporates always try to be in the good books of all political parties by making donations in one way or the other. Therefore, people won’t take allegations against corporates by political parties seriously. So, it’s better for political parties to refrain from targeting corporates during the elections.

Further, it is very unlikely that BJP will be in trouble if the poll percentage falls down. It’s so because such a scenario clearly indicates that there is no anti-incumbency against it. Further, BJP is gaining traction in Telangana despite an aggressive campaign against it by Revanth Reddy.

In Andhra Pradesh where BJP is contesting in six MP seats in alliance with TDP and Jana Sena, the saffron party which drew blank last time may win some seats as the YS Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSR Congress is on a sticky wicket. That shows that BJP may gain in some States while losing some seats in some other States. So, the Congress-led India block can write-off BJP at this juncture at its own peril.

Meanwhile, AamAadmi Party president and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, who is out on interim bail in the Delhi liquor case, threw his first salvo at Modi on the latter’s age. Modi will turn 75 next year. Kejriwal said that as Modi had set the 75-year retirement rule in the BJP, he will elevate Amit Shah as Prime Minister after one year if the BJP wins this election. It is a fact that many senior leaders above 75 years of age in BJP were shifted to inactive roles after Modi became Prime Minister for the first time in 2014. But there was one exception. BS Yediyurappa became Chief Minister of Karnataka at the age of 76 years in July 2019 and continued in that post for two years. Anyway, it is very unlikely that BJP will make any attempt to replace Modi with another person as the Prime Minister after he turns 75. Who will dare retire a winning horse?